Signals

Every series the model watches, grouped by block. Each page shows the latest reading, its standardised signal and how the model uses it.

Real Activity & Output

15 series

Average of GDP and GDI Not in model
Business inventories Not in model
Capacity utilization In model
Cass Freight shipments index In model
Core capital goods orders In model
Durable goods orders ex-transport Not in model
Electricity output In model
Heavy truck sales In model
Industrial production In model
Inventory-to-sales ratio Not in model
Real GDP In model
Real gross domestic income In model
Real manufacturing & trade sales In model
Real personal consumption expenditures In model
Real personal income less transfers In model

Labor Market

22 series

Average hourly earnings Not in model
Average weekly hours, all private In model
Average weekly hours, manufacturing In model
Continuing claims In model
Employment cost index Not in model
Household survey employment In model
Indeed job postings index In model
Initial jobless claims, 4-week average In model
Insured unemployment rate In model
Job openings In model
Labor force participation rate Context
Layoffs and discharges In model
Michaillat-Saez rule Benchmark
Nonfarm payrolls In model
Prime-age employment-population ratio In model
Quits rate In model
Richmond Fed SOS indicator Benchmark
Sahm Rule (real-time) Benchmark
Temporary help services employment In model
U-6 underemployment rate Not in model
Unemployment rate Not in model
Unit labor costs Not in model

Household & Consumer

15 series

Credit card delinquency, all banks In model
Distribution of wealth and debt Context
Excess savings buffer Context
Financial obligations ratio Context
Household debt service ratio Context
Household net worth In model
Mortgage delinquency rate Not in model
Personal saving rate Not in model
Real disposable personal income In model
Real retail & food services sales In model
Retail sales, control group In model
Revolving consumer credit Not in model
SLOOS consumer credit standards In model
Total vehicle sales, SAAR In model
U. Michigan consumer sentiment In model

Business, Orders & Surveys

6 series

Business formation applications In model
CFNAI diffusion index In model
Chicago Fed National Activity Index In model
Corporate profits, NIPA basis In model
Empire State manufacturing survey In model
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey In model

Credit & Financial Conditions

23 series

Adjusted NFCI In model
BBB OAS Not in model
Bank deposits In model
CCC and lower OAS Not in model
CRE delinquency at banks Not in model
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index In model
Commercial & industrial loans Not in model
Commercial paper spreads Not in model
Excess bond premium (Gilchrist-Zakrajsek) In model
High yield OAS Not in model
Investment grade corporate OAS Not in model
Kansas City Fed financial stress index In model
Moody's Aaa minus 10-year Treasury In model
Moody's Baa minus 10-year Treasury In model
NFCI credit subindex In model
NFCI leverage subindex In model
NFCI risk subindex Not in model
SLOOS: C&I tightening, large firms In model
SLOOS: C&I tightening, small firms Not in model
SLOOS: CRE standards In model
SLOOS: loan demand In model
St. Louis Fed financial stress index In model
Total bank credit In model

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

15 series

10-year real yield In model
5-year real yield In model
Effective fed funds rate In model
Fed balance sheet total assets In model
M2 money stock In model
M2 velocity Context
Mortgage rate lock-in effect Context
Overnight reverse repo balances In model
Real M2 In model
Reserve balances at Federal Reserve banks In model
Target range, upper bound Not in model
Taylor rule deviation Context
Ten-year term premium (ACM) Context
Treasury General Account In model
r-star (Holston-Laubach-Williams) Context

The Yield Curve Complex

2 series

10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread In model
10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread In model

Inflation & Prices

18 series

10-year breakeven inflation Not in model
16% trimmed mean CPI Not in model
5-year 5-year forward breakeven Not in model
5-year breakeven inflation Not in model
Brent crude oil Not in model
Cleveland Fed model inflation expectations Not in model
Cleveland median CPI Not in model
Core CPI Not in model
Core PCE price index Not in model
Hamilton net oil price increase In model
Headline CPI Not in model
Headline PCE price index Not in model
Import price index Not in model
Natural gas, Henry Hub In model
PPI final demand Not in model
Sticky-price CPI Not in model
U. Michigan 1-year inflation expectations Not in model
WTI crude oil In model

Housing & Construction

12 series

30-year fixed mortgage rate In model
Building permits In model
Case-Shiller national HPI Not in model
Existing home sales Not in model
FHFA house price index Not in model
Housing starts In model
Months' supply of new homes In model
New home sales In model
Private nonresidential construction In model
Rental vacancy rate In model
Residential fixed investment share of GDP In model
Total construction spending In model

Equity, Volatility & Cross-Asset

4 series

Bond-equity correlation regime Context
CBOE volatility index In model
Equity drawdown from trailing 12-month high In model
Equity risk premium versus real yields Context

Commodities & Dollar

7 series

Advanced-economy dollar index In model
Agricultural commodity index In model
Broad trade-weighted dollar index In model
Copper price Not in model
Crypto-equity correlation regime Context
EM corporate spreads Not in model
USD/JPY and carry-trade stress Not in model

Fiscal & Sovereign

5 series

Bill versus coupon issuance mix Context
Debt ceiling and shutdown calendar Context
Federal debt held by the public Context
Federal deficit as share of GDP Not in model
Net interest outlays Context

Global & External

3 series

BIS debt service ratios Context
EM foreign exchange reserves Context
OECD composite leading indicator, US Benchmark

Uncertainty, Sentiment & Text

3 series

Economic Policy Uncertainty index In model
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Not in model
Philadelphia Fed Anxious Index Benchmark

Composite & Model Benchmarks

19 series

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index Benchmark
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Benchmark
CFNAI three-month average Benchmark
Chauvet-Piger smoothed probability Benchmark
Cleveland Fed yield curve model Benchmark
Conference Board LEI 3Ds rule Benchmark
Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index Benchmark
Hamilton GDP-based recession index Benchmark
Michaillat-Saez rule Benchmark
NBER recession indicator (the label) Benchmark
NY Fed Staff Nowcast Benchmark
NY Fed yield curve probability Benchmark
Philadelphia Fed leading index Benchmark
Richmond Fed SOS indicator Benchmark
SF Fed Labor Market Stress Index Benchmark
Sahm Rule Benchmark
Term spread + EBP probit Benchmark
Term spread alone, transitions only Benchmark
Unconditional base rate Benchmark

Structural & Slow-Moving

15 series

AI and datacenter capex cycle Context
Age dependency ratio Context
Bank regulatory and capital regime Context
Corporate concentration Context
Electricity demand growth Context
Fixed versus floating debt mix Context
Housing supply deficit Context
Insurance availability and repricing Context
Long-term debt cycle position Context
Net immigration flows Context
Prime-age participation trend Context
Reshoring and energy transition capex Context
Total factor productivity Context
Trend labor productivity Context
Working-age population growth Context

Alternative & High-Frequency

2 series

Indeed job postings (daily) Not in model
Weekly claims nowcast input Not in model

Supporting series

8 series

3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis Supporting
Advance Retail Sales: Building Materials, Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers Supporting
Advance Retail Sales: Gasoline Stations Supporting
Advance Retail Sales: Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Supporting
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Supporting
Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Supporting
Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Supporting
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Supporting