Signals › Inflation & Prices
Oil shocks preceded most postwar recessions.
Dollars per Barrel · observation 2026-09-29, published 2026-09-30
Last 24 observations.
Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.
Inflation & Prices: Capture the shock channel, not the level. Inflation rarely causes recessions; oil shocks and the policy response to inflation do. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.