Signals › Inflation & Prices
The Fed's preferred anchoring gauge.
Percent · observation 2026-10-02, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Inflation & Prices: Capture the shock channel, not the level. Inflation rarely causes recessions; oil shocks and the policy response to inflation do. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.