Index 2017=100 · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-30
Last 24 observations.
Signal
—
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Use
Not in model: LAGGING: never a predictor
Where it fits
Inflation & Prices: Capture the shock channel, not the level. Inflation rarely causes recessions; oil shocks and the policy response to inflation do. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.