Signals › Household & Consumer
Inflation-weighted. FRED lags one month at the source's request. Quarterly before 1978, so used from 1978 only (audit M-05).
licensed: not shown on the public site.
Reassuring. It holds the probability down.
Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.