CycleWatch

Signals › Household & Consumer

TNWBSHNO · FRED

Household net worth

The wealth-effect channel from asset prices to spending.

Latest reading

195,870,496

Millions of U.S. Dollars · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-09-11

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+2.76

Reassuring. It holds the probability down.

Use
In model: block 3 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block