CycleWatch

Signals › Household & Consumer

DSPIC96 · FRED

Real disposable personal income

The budget constraint on 68% of GDP.

Latest reading

18,410

Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-30

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.04

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 3 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block