Real retail & food services sales

Volume rather than value. Essential in inflation.

Latest reading

231,630

Millions of 1982-84 CPI Adjusted Dollars · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-16

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.42

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use: In model: block 3 score
Model input: 100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction: A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

Real disposable personal income
Personal saving rate
U. Michigan consumer sentiment
Retail sales, control group
Total vehicle sales, SAAR
Credit card delinquency, all banks
Mortgage delinquency rate
Household debt service ratio
Financial obligations ratio
Revolving consumer credit
Household net worth
Distribution of wealth and debt