CycleWatch

Signals › Household & Consumer

DRCCLACBS · FRED

Credit card delinquency, all banks

Consumer stress reaching bank balance sheets.

Latest reading

2.85

Percent · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-08-25

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.26

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 3 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block