Signals › Household & Consumer
Non-monotonic: a falling rate funding consumption is borrowed time; a spiking rate is precautionary retrenchment.
Percent · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-30
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.