Signals › Real Activity & Output
Acceleration matters, not level.
Millions of Dollars · observation 2026-07-01, published 2026-09-16
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.