CycleWatch

Signals › Real Activity & Output

CMRMTSPL · FRED

Real manufacturing & trade sales

NBER committee indicator.

Latest reading

1,598,922

Millions of Chained 2017 Dollars · observation 2026-07-01, published 2026-09-30

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.41

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 1 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block