Average of GDP and GDI

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

• Real GDP
• Real gross domestic income
• Industrial production
• Capacity utilization
• Real personal income less transfers
• Real personal consumption expenditures
• Real manufacturing & trade sales
• Business inventories
• Inventory-to-sales ratio
• Core capital goods orders
• Durable goods orders ex-transport
• Heavy truck sales