CycleWatch

Signals › Real Activity & Output

HTRUCKSSAAR · FRED

Heavy truck sales

Durable, credit-financed, business-discretionary. Clean cyclical tell.

Latest reading

0.396

Millions of Units · observation 2026-09-01, published 2026-10-02

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−1.64

Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.

Use
In model: block 1 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block