CycleWatch

Signals › Real Activity & Output

PCEC96 · FRED

Real personal consumption expenditures

NBER committee indicator. 68% of GDP.

Latest reading

16,955

Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-30

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.43

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 1 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block