CycleWatch

Signals › Real Activity & Output

INDPRO · FRED

Industrial production

NBER committee indicator.

Latest reading

103.1

Index 2017=100 · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-18

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.24

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 1 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block