CycleWatch

Signals › Labor Market

IURSA · FRED

Insured unemployment rate

Administrative rather than survey data.

Latest reading

1.10

Percent · observation 2026-09-19, published 2026-10-01

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.58

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 2 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block