CycleWatch

Signals › Labor Market

IC4WSA · FRED

Initial jobless claims, 4-week average

Fastest labor signal available. Weekly, barely revised.

Latest reading

200,000

Number · observation 2026-09-26, published 2026-10-01

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.86

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 2 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block