Nonfarm payrolls

NBER indicator. Use 3m average and watch the revision pattern.

Latest reading

159,044

Thousands of Persons · observation 2026-09-01, published 2026-10-02

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.88

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use: In model: block 2 score
Model input: 100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction: A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

Household survey employment
Unemployment rate
U-6 underemployment rate
Sahm Rule (real-time)
Michaillat-Saez rule
Richmond Fed SOS indicator
Initial jobless claims, 4-week average
Continuing claims
Insured unemployment rate
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours, all private
Temporary help services employment