Signals › Labor Market
min(delta-u, -delta-v). Thresholds 0.29 / 0.81. Beats Sahm by ~1.5 months.
No free source.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.