Sahm Rule (real-time)

Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

• Nonfarm payrolls
• Household survey employment
• Unemployment rate
• U-6 underemployment rate
• Michaillat-Saez rule
• Richmond Fed SOS indicator
• Initial jobless claims, 4-week average
• Continuing claims
• Insured unemployment rate
• Average weekly hours, manufacturing
• Average weekly hours, all private
• Temporary help services employment