CycleWatch

Signals › Business, Orders & Surveys

GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI · FRED

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

Longest continuous regional history.

Latest reading

37.80

Index · observation 2026-09-01, published 2026-09-17

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+1.60

Reassuring. It holds the probability down.

Use
In model: block 4 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Business, Orders & Surveys: Capture intentions before transactions. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block