CycleWatch

Signals › Business, Orders & Surveys

BAHBATOTALSAUS · FRED

Business formation applications

High-propensity applications as a confidence proxy. Published from Feb 2018 (history to 2004).

Latest reading

145,387

Number · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-11

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.28

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 4 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Business, Orders & Surveys: Capture intentions before transactions. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block