CycleWatch

Signals › Business, Orders & Surveys

GACDISA066MSFRBNY · FRED

Empire State manufacturing survey

First regional read each month. Free ISM proxy.

Latest reading

7.60

Index · observation 2026-09-01, published 2026-09-15

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.01

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 4 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Business, Orders & Surveys: Capture intentions before transactions. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block