CycleWatch

Signals › Business, Orders & Surveys

CFNAI · FRED

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

85 series, first principal component.

Latest reading

-0.040

Index · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-21

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.15

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 4 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Business, Orders & Surveys: Capture intentions before transactions. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block