CycleWatch

Signals › Business, Orders & Surveys

CPATAX · FRED

Corporate profits, NIPA basis

With IVA and CCAdj. Margin compression precedes layoffs 2-4 quarters.

Latest reading

3,877

Billions of Dollars · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-08-26

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.90

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 4 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Business, Orders & Surveys: Capture intentions before transactions. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block