Mortgage rate lock-in effect

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

• Effective fed funds rate
• Target range, upper bound
• r-star (Holston-Laubach-Williams)
• Taylor rule deviation
• Ten-year term premium (ACM)
• 5-year real yield
• 10-year real yield
• M2 money stock
• Real M2
• M2 velocity
• Fed balance sheet total assets
• Reserve balances at Federal Reserve banks