CycleWatch

Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

M2REAL · FRED

Real M2

Purchasing-power-adjusted liquidity.

Latest reading

6,986

Billions of 1982-84 Dollars · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-22

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.21

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 6 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block