Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity
Long-horizon real cost of capital.
Percent · observation 2026-10-01, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.
Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.