CycleWatch

Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

DFF · FRED

Effective fed funds rate

The actual policy rate, daily.

Latest reading

3.88

Percent · observation 2026-10-01, published 2026-10-02

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.65

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 6 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block