CycleWatch

Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

WRESBAL · FRED

Reserve balances at Federal Reserve banks

The scarcity variable. Reserve shortage caused Sept 2019 repo stress.

Latest reading

2,948,090

Millions of U.S. Dollars · observation 2026-09-30, published 2026-10-01

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.22

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 6 score
Model input
100 × change in the logarithm, about the % change from the previous period
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block