CycleWatch

Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

WALCL · FRED

Fed balance sheet total assets

QT pace as a quantity-side policy stance.

Latest reading

6,743,031

Millions of U.S. Dollars · observation 2026-09-30, published 2026-10-01

Last 24 observations.

Signal

−0.15

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 6 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block