CycleWatch

Signals › Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity

HLW_RSTAR · FED_REGIONAL

r-star (Holston-Laubach-Williams)

One of the few series with an official real-time vintage archive.

Latest reading

—

No free source.

Signal

—

Not in the fit. No verdict.

Use
Context: regime context; not an input

Where it fits

Monetary Policy, Rates & Liquidity: Model the policy reaction function explicitly rather than treating policy as an exogenous shock. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block