Signals › Structural & Slow-Moving
Sets trend growth; a lower trend makes shallower contractions read as recessions.
Persons · observation 2026-07-01, published 2026-08-17
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Structural & Slow-Moving: Set the amplitude, transmission speed, and which historical analogues apply. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.