Signals › Labor Market
Falling openings absorb slack before unemployment rises.
Level in Thousands · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-29
Last 24 observations.
Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.
Labor Market: Detect the income-to-consumption feedback loop that turns a slowdown into a recession. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.