SPF probability of a GDP decline next quarter. History to 1968.
Latest reading
—
No free source.
Signal
—
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Use
Benchmark: scored against the model, never an input
Where it fits
Uncertainty, Sentiment & Text: Quantify uncertainty shocks and narrative shifts. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.