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Latest reading
160.6
Index · observation 2026-10-01, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Signal
−1.34
Recession-like. A weaker block can only raise the probability.
Use
In model: block 14 score
Model input
the level as published
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.
Where it fits
Uncertainty, Sentiment & Text: Quantify uncertainty shocks and narrative shifts. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.