Debt ceiling and shutdown calendar

Fiscal & Sovereign: Measure fiscal impulse and capture the highest-frequency income data available anywhere. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

• Federal deficit as share of GDP
• Net interest outlays
• Federal debt held by the public
• Bill versus coupon issuance mix