CycleWatch

Signals › Fiscal & Sovereign

A091RC1Q027SBEA · FRED

Net interest outlays

As a share of revenue, this constrains future countercyclical capacity.

Latest reading

1,280

Billions of Dollars · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-07-30

Last 24 observations.

Signal

—

Not in the fit. No verdict.

Use
Context: regime context; not an input

Where it fits

Fiscal & Sovereign: Measure fiscal impulse and capture the highest-frequency income data available anywhere. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block