CycleWatch

Signals › Fiscal & Sovereign

GFDEBTN · FRED

Federal debt held by the public

The stock behind the interest burden.

Latest reading

39,462,398

Millions of Dollars · observation 2026-04-01, published 2026-09-02

Last 24 observations.

Signal

—

Not in the fit. No verdict.

Use
Context: regime context; not an input

Where it fits

Fiscal & Sovereign: Measure fiscal impulse and capture the highest-frequency income data available anywhere. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block