CycleWatch

Signals › Credit & Financial Conditions

BAA10Y · FRED

Moody's Baa minus 10-year Treasury

Moody's data: may not be redistributed (audit H-03). BAA10Y from 1986; BAA - GS10 extends it to 1953.

Latest reading

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licensed: not shown on the public site.

Signal

+0.29

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 5 score
Model input
change from the previous period
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Credit & Financial Conditions: Measure the price and availability of credit — the best-performing partner to the term spread in published out-of-sample work. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block