CycleWatch

Signals › Composite & Model Benchmarks

USREC · FRED

NBER recession indicator (the label)

This is the TARGET, not a feature. Announcement lag 4-21 months must be respected in every backtest.

Latest reading

0.000

+1 or 0 · observation 2026-09-01, published 2026-10-01

Last 24 observations.

Signal

—

Not in the fit. No verdict.

Use
Benchmark: scored against the model, never an input

Where it fits

Composite & Model Benchmarks: Adjudicate the model. NOT inputs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block