CycleWatch

Signals › Composite & Model Benchmarks

CB_LEI · VENDOR

Conference Board LEI 3Ds rule

Duration, depth, diffusion. Fell 22 straight months 2022-24 with no recession — a compositional-bias failure worth reproducing.

Latest reading

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No free source.

Signal

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Not in the fit. No verdict.

Use
Benchmark: scored against the model, never an input

Where it fits

Composite & Model Benchmarks: Adjudicate the model. NOT inputs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block