Signals › Composite & Model Benchmarks
~14% of months. The floor. A model that cannot beat this should not exist.
% chance of recession within 12 months · observation 2026-10-02, published 2026-10-02
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Composite & Model Benchmarks: Adjudicate the model. NOT inputs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.