Signals › Composite & Model Benchmarks
Dynamic-factor Markov-switching. Three months >80% = recession underway. Estimated on payrolls, IP, real income and real sales — using it as a feature would be predicting the target with a function of the target.
Percent · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-10-01
Last 24 observations.
Not in the fit. No verdict.
Composite & Model Benchmarks: Adjudicate the model. NOT inputs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.