NY Fed yield curve probability

Composite & Model Benchmarks: Adjudicate the model. NOT inputs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

• Unconditional base rate
• Term spread + EBP probit
• Term spread alone, transitions only
• Cleveland Fed yield curve model
• Chauvet-Piger smoothed probability
• Hamilton GDP-based recession index
• CFNAI three-month average
• Conference Board LEI 3Ds rule
• Sahm Rule
• Michaillat-Saez rule
• SF Fed Labor Market Stress Index
• Richmond Fed SOS indicator