Excess savings buffer

Household & Consumer: Track two-thirds of GDP and the credit channel that constrains it. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block

• Real disposable personal income
• Personal saving rate
• U. Michigan consumer sentiment
• Retail sales, control group
• Real retail & food services sales
• Total vehicle sales, SAAR
• Credit card delinquency, all banks
• Mortgage delinquency rate
• Household debt service ratio
• Financial obligations ratio
• Revolving consumer credit
• Household net worth