CycleWatch

Signals › Commodities & Dollar

WPU01 · FRED

Agricultural commodity index

Food price shocks with political and EM transmission. PPI farm products (was PPIACO, which is all commodities, not agricultural).

Latest reading

230.9

Index 1982=100 · observation 2026-08-01, published 2026-09-10

Last 24 observations.

Signal

+0.44

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 11 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A rising value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Commodities & Dollar: Capture the fastest-moving global liquidity and risk-appetite signals. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block