CycleWatch

Signals › Commodities & Dollar

DEXJPUS · FRED

USD/JPY and carry-trade stress

The August 2024 unwind is the live precedent.

Latest reading

157.2

Japanese Yen to One U.S. Dollar · observation 2026-09-25, published 2026-09-28

Last 24 observations.

Signal

—

Not in the fit. No verdict.

Use
Not in model: sign 0 (non-monotonic): kept out of signed block scores

Where it fits

Commodities & Dollar: Capture the fastest-moving global liquidity and risk-appetite signals. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block