CycleWatch

Signals › Real Activity & Output

FRGSHPUSM649NCIS · FRED

Cass Freight shipments index

Physical goods flow, independent of survey sentiment.

Latest reading

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licensed: not shown on the public site.

Signal

+0.38

Inside the normal range. Not a strong reading either way.

Use
In model: block 1 score
Model input
% change from a year earlier
Direction
A falling value raises recession risk.

Where it fits

Real Activity & Output: Capture the definitional core of economic activity — the series the NBER committee itself weighs. The model averages the standardised signals in each block into a block score, then combines the twelve block scores in a probit. Today the 12-block model reads 1.6%.

Other signals in this block